AccuWeather forecasts a hurricane season with “above normal” activity for this 2020

This wednesday, AccuWeather launched its forecast for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, where 14 to 18 tropical storms are projected this year.

14 to 18 tropical storms are expected, 7 to 9 will become hurricanes and 2 to 4 will reach major hurricane strength

The private weather services company AccuWeather predicted in a report released Wednesday that the Atlantic basin will be affected in 2020 with activity above normal, as it was in 2019.

The team of meteorologists led by Dan Kottlowksi, with 43 years of experience, warned that 14 to 18 tropical storms are expected, of which 7 to 9 will become hurricanes and of these 2 to 4 will reach major hurricane strength.

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“This year, we will be hit with one or two major storms in the United States and we don’t know specifically where it is, so if you live near a coast or on an island, you will have a hurricane,” says Kottlowski.

It may be even worse because of the coronavirus pandemic

The official hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. However, the last 2 years there has been hurricane activity in May; with storms “Andrea” (2019) and “Alberto” (2018) preceding the official calendar. And although there are still two months to go, it is quite possible that the US will still be struggling with Covid-19 by that time.

Kottlowksi said it will be a season of “above-average” activity, which is never good for the region, but this year may be even worse because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Experts have already begun predicting what would happen if this summer brings a more intense series of hurricanes than usual. “Utilities are doing a very good job right now, but if we are unlucky and have an active hurricane season, they will be very stressed out because the number of workers who are available to repair damage and restore power will be more limited,” said John MacWilliams, former deputy assistant secretary of the Department of Energy.

According to AccuWeather, a company founded in 1962, in a normal season there are about 12 tropical storms and six hurricanes. The strongest hurricanes are usually three at most.

The last few seasons have been above average

The one in 2019 was exceptionally active, only comparable to the one in 1969, with 18 storms. Powerful hurricanes like “Dorian, Lorenzo and Humberto” and losses and damages of 11 billion dollars.

To make forecasts for 2020, experts study years with “analogous” weather conditions, in this case 1980 and 2005, and seawater temperatures, among other factors.

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“Allen” was the worst of the 1980 cyclones, with more than 200 deaths, and in 2005 there were so many tropical storms (28) that there were no more names on the International Meteorological Organization’s list and Greek names had to be used, says AccuWeather.

The destructive Katrina, Rita and Wilma were in 2005.

The National Hurricane Center and the University of Colorado have not yet released their forecasts for 2020.

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